Putin is re-elected in Russia and guarantees his stay in power until 2030: the political impact and prospects for the country

Vladimir Putin has held the position since 2000, surpassing any other Russian leader since Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. At 71, he is heading towards his fifth term as president.

Members of an electoral commission empty a ballot box to count votes, after polling stations closed in Novosibirsk - Photo Reproduction/Reuters/Vladislav Nekrasov

Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, long a central figure in the country's politics and a prominent figure on the global stage, was re-elected once again to the position, consolidating his stay in power until 2030. This victory not only solidifies Putin's continued control over Russia, but also raises questions about the country's political future and its role in the world. Confirmation came via state broadcaster Russia-24. Until approximately 3:35 pm this Sunday (17), the initial results point to a victory with 88% of the votes counted.

Putin's dominance was ratified after three days of voting, which began on Friday (15) and concluded this Sunday, at 3 pm (Brasília time). More than 8 million voters participated in online voting, as informed by the responsible body. There were no real competitors capable of threatening the current president's victory, as the other three candidates, all parliamentarians, are widely considered to be puppets — having voted in favor of intervention in Ukraine in parliament and publicly expressed support for Putin.

Russian Elections

The vote took place amid intense repression that silenced independent media outlets and silenced prominent human rights groups. Alexei Navalny, one of Putin's most prominent opponents, passed away in February, while imprisoned in the Arctic, while other critics face detention or are in exile. On the third day of voting, Navalny was remembered, with people in Moscow visiting his grave and placing a model ballot paper with his name on it.

There were at least six incidents of vandalism at polling places reported on Friday and Saturday, including an arson attack and the contamination of ballot boxes with a green liquid. In 2017, Navalny was the target of an attack in which an attacker threw green disinfectant in his face. On Sunday, Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Alexei Navalny, took part in a protest against Putin and voted at the Russian embassy in Berlin.

According to the BBC, Navalnaya informed journalists that she was the one who filled out the ballot with Navalny's name. Meanwhile, over the three days of voting, Ukraine intensified bombings against Russia and carried out incursions into Russian territory. Last Sunday, Ukraine launched a drone attack against Moscow, sending 36 long-range drones to eight Russian regions, including four aimed at the Russian capital.

Putin's Reelection

Vladimir Putin's re-election did not come as a surprise to many political observers. The Russian leader, known for his strategic skill and firm control over the state machinery, won another term with a comfortable margin of votes. Putin has been in charge for a period of 24 years, establishing himself as the longest-serving Russian president since Josef Stalin, during the Soviet Union era. The international press predicted his re-election, which could allow Putin to surpass Stalin's almost 30 years in power.

In 2020, he amended the Constitution to extend his term until 2036. This prolonged period in power, combined with the complete suppression of domestic opposition voices, grants Putin considerable, possibly unfettered, authority. Many opposition politicians were detained, some met their end under mysterious circumstances, like Alexei Navalny and Boris Nemtsov. Others, like Garry Kasparov, were labeled terrorists and forced to leave the country.

In practice, Putin prevents genuine opponents from running in elections against him, as happened this year. Several press outlets were banned, including "Novaya Gazeta", whose founder received the Nobel Peace Prize for his work in journalism. The country's authorities also warned that any form of demonstration during the voting period is considered illegal and will be punished. On Friday morning, the first day of voting, shortly after the polls opened, a woman was detained for throwing paint into a ballot box at a polling place in Moscow. Despite this, Alexei Navalny's wife, Yulia Navalny, called for a large demonstration in the Russian capital for Sunday.

In Russia, the regime is not labeled as a democracy, but rather as a "controlled democracy". The candidates appearing on the ballot are, in practice, allies of Putin. Among them are Nikolai Kharitonov, a 75-year-old deputy representing the Communist Party, with approximately 4% of voting intentions in the polls. Leonid Slutsky, another deputy from a nationalist party, also registered around 4% in voting intentions. Vladislav Davankov, vice-president of the Chamber of Deputies, is another name that appears with around 5% of voting intentions.

The Internal Political Impact and Perspectives for the Country

With Putin guaranteed to remain in power until 2030, Russia's domestic political landscape will likely continue to be dominated by his centralized leadership style. The Russian government is expected to continue to prioritize internal stability, often at the expense of civil liberties and political opposition. Furthermore, the lack of a clear succession and the growing concentration of power around Putin raise questions about the future of democracy in Russia.

The prospects for Russia under Putin's continued leadership are complex. While the country continues to be a military and economic power of global importance, it faces significant challenges, including economic pressure from international sanctions, volatility in oil and gas prices and the need to modernize its economy.

Furthermore, Russia's relations with other nations, especially the United States and the European Union, continue to be tense, with disputes over issues such as the war in Ukraine, Syria and election interference. Putin's continued leadership will likely maintain this geopolitical status quo, with Russia seeking to assert its influence in various parts of the world.