Projections indicate that centrist parties should maintain control of the European parliament even with the advance of the ultra-right
Even with the gains of the extreme right weakening the governments in France and Germany, the majority in the European Parliament will continue with the blocs formed by conservatives, liberals and social democrats, after the vote that chose 720 new MEPs.
Projections of the European Parliament are shown on the European Union building in Brussels, Belgium, on June 9, 2024 - - Photo Reproduction/Reuters/Piroschka van de Wouw
As the European Parliament elections approach, the latest projections indicate that centrist parties should continue to dominate the institution, despite the observed growth of ultra-right parties in several countries on the continent. According to projections released on Sunday (9), voting to choose 720 new MEPs ended on the last day of the elections for the next five-year term. The sum of the blocks formed by conservatives, liberals and social democrats will continue to have a majority in the European Parliament. However, the official results have not yet been released.
Current Scenario and Electoral Projections
The first round of European Parliament elections are scheduled for June 30, 2024, and the traditionally dominant center-right and center-left parties are preparing to face an increasingly fragmented electoral landscape. Recent polls indicate that, although there is a notable advance of far-right parties, such as the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), the Rassemblement National in France and Matteo Salvini's League in Italy, they are unlikely to be able to win the majority necessary to take control of Parliament. The second round will take place on July 7th.
In general, in the European Union, the Christian Democrats and Socialists remain the main pro-European political groups. However, the ultra-right has advanced to the detriment of the Greens, who are expected to lose around 20 seats and fall to sixth position. For many decades, the ultra-right was marginalized in European Union politics. However, with her strong performance in these elections, she could become an important part of discussions on migration, security and climate.
The right-wing European People's Party (EPP) would remain the main political force, with 181 seats; the Social Democrats would have 135 seats and the Renew Liberals would have 82 seats. Together, they would form a large bloc with 389 seats. Ultra-right parties are expected to gain greater influence amid rising costs of living and farmer discontent. Furthermore, issues related to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine are of utmost importance to voters.
Contributing Factors to the Stability of the Center
Several factors contribute to this resilience of center parties. Firstly, concern for economic and political stability remains a priority for many European voters. Centrist parties are often perceived as a safe and reliable choice for maintaining order and continuity of economic policies.
Furthermore, political polarization and the rise of right-wing populism have led to greater mobilization of the moderate electorate. Many voters who may not have participated in previous elections are now more engaged, driven by the desire to contain the spread of movements they consider radical.
According to Cas Mudde, an expert on populism and the radical right at the University of Georgia, the election results were in line with expectations globally. Furthermore, these elections mainly reflect developments that occurred at the national level. Mudde stated that these developments included highly unpopular incumbent governments. The main impact of these elections will likely be felt in national capitals, especially Paris and Berlin, Mudde highlighted.
Challenges for Center Parties
Center parties are not without challenges. Growing dissatisfaction with the management of issues such as immigration, security and national identity has fueled support for far-right parties. These parties promise stricter policies and are seen by some voters as more authentic and less compromised by the complexities of coalition government. Furthermore, the wear and tear of austerity policies implemented during the last economic crises still resonates with many voters, especially in southern European countries. Far-right parties have exploited these resentments, promising economic relief policies and an overhaul of relations with the European Union.
Mujtaba Rahman of consultancy Eurasia Group said that despite the gains, divisions and disorganization among right-wing groups will limit their impact on the political and EU agenda over the next five years. Along with other analysts, Rahman also stated that, in specific issues where far-right political positions are strong and can align with the goals of the center-right EPP, "center-right tactical alliances' ' could weaken or even derail EU initiatives.
These debates are likely to include specific issues relating to migration and the green transition, with right-wing MEPs seeking to limit the impact of climate legislation, particularly on businesses, families and individuals. In these areas, and perhaps others, parliament's work may become more complicated. Analysis of votes at the previous assembly by EUobserver and Novaya Gazeta Europe showed that 69 of the more than 2,000 final resolutions were decided by narrow margins.
The Role of the Greens and Liberals
Another important point to consider is the role of green and liberal parties. The Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/ALE) group has been gaining ground, driven by growing concern about climate change and environmental issues. Likewise, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), now known as Renew Europe, continues to be a significant force, especially in countries such as France and the Netherlands.
These parties often act as kingmakers, capable of forming coalitions with both the centrist left and right, and will be essential to maintaining a balance of power that prevents far-right domination.
What is the election like in the European Union?
Elections in the European Union are a democratic process in which citizens of the Member States have the opportunity to elect representatives to the European Parliament. MEPs are elected by each nation, with Germany being the country with the largest number of seats, with a total of 96, while Malta and Luxembourg have the fewest seats, with just six each.
This is considered the second largest vote in the world, behind India's general elections.
During the electoral period, candidates present their proposals and voters vote for those they consider most suitable to represent them in decision-making at European level. The results of the elections reflect the will of citizens and are used to form the European Parliament, whose function is to legislate and monitor the actions of the European Commission.
There are approximately 450 million inhabitants in European Union countries, with only Belgium, Bulgaria, Luxembourg and Greece having mandatory voting. In other countries, voting is optional. The European Parliament is made up of 720 elected members. Voting precincts are located from the Arctic Circle to the borders of Africa and Asia. There is even voting at the Portuguese consulate in São Paulo.
For a long time, the European Parliament was occupied by politicians who were veterans of their countries and those who were at the beginning of their careers. The change began to occur due to the new responsibilities acquired by the European Union, such as decision-making regarding the banking and agricultural rules of the bloc's countries, as well as the European Union's budget. Furthermore, voters began to show greater interest, and in 2019, attendance at the elections was considered a success, reaching 50.66%. This year, more than 60% of people are expected to vote.
