Murder rate in Brazil will drop 4% in 2023, says Violence Monitor
In 2023, there were 39.5 thousand violent deaths, compared to the 41.1 thousand registered in 2022. The national index, created in 2017 by G1 in partnership with the FBSP and NEV-USP, ends its activities after reaching the objective to promote greater transparency in the dissemination of data on public security. Monitoring will continue with other initiatives.
This is the third in a row and, again, the smallest in the historical series that began in 2007 - Photo Reproduction/Internet
According to a report released by the final edition of a periodic survey carried out by the Violence Monitor, Brazil recorded a significant drop in the murder rate in 2023 compared to 2022, providing a glimmer of hope amid the persistent fight against violence in the country. According to data compiled by the Violence Monitor, a partnership between the news website G1, the USP Violence Studies Center and the Brazilian Public Security Forum(FBSP), the country experienced a 4% reduction in homicides last year.
The survey records the number of victims of intentional homicides (including femicides), robberies (robberies followed by death) and bodily injuries followed by death. Deaths resulting from police violence are not considered. This is the third consecutive fall and, once again, it is the lowest since the beginning of the historical series in 2007.The reduction, although modest, represents a positive milestone in a country that has long faced significant challenges related to public safety. However, even with this drop, Brazil continues to rank among the countries with high homicide rates worldwide.
According to a study carried out by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and published by the United Nations (UN) in December last year, Brazil occupied a prominent position in the global homicide ranking in absolute terms. This conclusion was presented in the 2023 Global Homicide Study. In 2021 alone, the period covered by the data, the country recorded more than 45 thousand cases of murder, surpassing India with 41 thousand cases, Mexico (35,700), the United States ( 22,941) and Myanmar (15,299).
Contributing Factors
The Violence Monitor report offers a detailed analysis of regional and demographic trends related to homicides in Brazil. A particularly notable aspect is the significant variation in violence rates between different regions of the country. While some areas have witnessed a sharp drop in murders, others still face considerable security challenges. Following the survey, the reduction in the murder rate was widely observed across the country: the majority (21) of states recorded a drop in the number of homicides in 2023 compared to 2022. Five states (Amapá, Pernambuco, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and Maranhão) showed an increase, while only one state (Ceará) remained stable .
The homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil, an internationally recognized measure to assess violence, also decreased, from 20.3 in 2022 to 19.4 in 2023. It is important to note that this number was calculated based on the Brazilian population in 2022 and may undergo changes when the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases official population estimates for 2023.
Although there have been improvements, the country still boasts one of the highest homicide rates globally. Furthermore, we face significant regional challenges in combating violence, with a greater number of federation units (19) recording violence rates higher than the national average, compared to those with lower rates (8).Several reasons may be contributing to the drop in the murder rate in Brazil. Among them, the strengthening of public security policies stands out, including crime prevention initiatives, investments in intelligence and police technology, as well as efforts to dismantle criminal organizations.
Analysis of Data
Several reasons may be contributing to the drop in the murder rate in Brazil. Among them, the strengthening of public security policies stands out, including crime prevention initiatives, investments in intelligence and police technology, as well as efforts to dismantle criminal organizations. According to the data released no In 2023, Brazil recorded a total of 39,492 homicide cases, intentional crimes, femicides, robberies and bodily injuries followed by death, resulting in an average of more than 108 victims daily.
Comparatively, in 2022, this number had been 41,140 violent deaths,equating to an average of 113 per day. The reduction was notable in states such as São Paulo, Pará and Bahia, responsible for 53% of the decrease of 1,648 deaths registered in 2023, and was observed across the country. Of the 27 federative units, 21 showed a decrease in the number of murders.
In 2023, São Paulo maintained the lowest mortality rate in Brazil, with 6.7 deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants, showing a drop compared to 2022. Bahia, despite a reduction, still has the 5th highest national rate, with 34 .3 deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants. Sergipe, Tocantins and Rondônia were the states with the largest percentage reductions in mortality, all with rates above the national average.
Rio de Janeiro had the greatest impact among states with increased mortality, contributing 35% of the additional deaths recorded, reversing a five-year decline. Pernambuco had the second largest increase, contributing 28% of the total. Despite representing less than 5% of the population, Pernambuco contributed 9% of violent deaths in the country in 2023. Amapá recorded the largest percentage increase, with 110 additional deaths, representing an increase of 49.5% compared to the previous year. Both states have a greater share of the country's total murders than their proportion of the total population and have the highest mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants, with 45.3 and 38.8, respectively.
Closing of the Periodic Survey
The Violence Monitor was created in 2017, with the aim of carrying out a regular survey of murders, filling a gap in the national panorama of information on homicides. At the time, there was no government tool that allowed society, including journalists, researchers, public managers and citizens in general, to access up-to-date data on this crucial issue. The only national survey available was carried out by the FSBP, published annually in the second semester, while the data provided by the states did not follow a uniform pattern and did not have a defined periodicity.
In collaboration with the Violence Monitor, hundreds of g1 journalists across the country began to collect information on violent deaths, month by month, from the states. This was done through the Access to Information Law (LAI) and state government press offices. As of January 2024, the federal government began publishing violent crime data through an interactive panel, covering information from all states.
Although the federal government uses a different methodology than that used by the Violence Monitor (including suspicious deaths and discoveries of bodies and bones, which are not always classified as homicides), the data suggest a similar scenario, with a 4% reduction in violent deaths in 2023.
