Lula's approval grows in regions of the southeast and central-west/north, shows Quaest research
The survey was carried out in person with 2000 people between the 5th and 8th of July. The margin of error is 2 percentage points up or down.
A approval of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) grew to of 54% - Photo Reproduction/Ricardo Stuckert/PR
New research released this Wednesday (10) reveals significant growth in the approval of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) among Brazilians with minors income and Southeast and Central-West/North regions. The survey data shows that Lula has an approval rating of 54%, while 43% of those interviewed disapprove of him. This result shows that approval has moved further away from disapproval, now being 11 percentage points higher.
In May, the rates were 50% and 47%, respectively, indicating a technical tie between the two indicators. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The research, commissioned by Genial Investimentos, interviewed 2,000 people aged 16 or over in 120 municipalities, from the 5th to the 8th of July. The study's confidence interval is 95%.
Religion and Gender
The survey shows shifts in opinions about government among different religious groups and genders. Among evangelicals, disapproval of Lula decreased to 52%, compared to 58% recorded in May. Among Catholics, 37% disapprove of the current government, while there were 40% in May. Approval among evangelicals rose from 39% to 42% in the same period, while among Catholics it went from 58% to 60%. The government's positive assessment by gender remained stable among men, rising from 32% to 34%. In women, there was a small variation from 35% to 37%. The negative evaluation among women fell from 30% to 25%, while among men it remained stable, from 37% to 36%.
Regional Approval: Southeast and Midwest/North
The Quaest survey also indicates an increase in Lula's approval in the Southeast and Central-West/North regions. The approval of the Lula government in the Southeast increased from 26% to 31%, representing the only significant increase in the president's popularity above the margin of error as indicated by research. In this region, the margin of error is three percentage points. On the other hand, disapproval fell from 39% to 34%, while regular evaluation remained stable, varying from 32% to 30%.
The biggest change in the positive evaluation of Lula's work occurred in the Central-West/North region, with an increase of nine percentage points, from 42% to 53% between May and July. Rejection in this region also decreased, falling from 50% to 42%. The government's highest approval rate is still in the Northeast, reaching 69%. In the South region, the government's positive assessment remained stable, considering the survey's margin of error of six percentage points.
The excellent/good index fell from 34% to 29%, indicating a reversal in relation to May's results, when there was an increase of nine percentage points for former president Lula, increasing his approval from 25% to 34%. This increase coincided with the rains in Rio Grande do Sul, during which the federal government collaborated with the state administration to mitigate the impacts of the tragedy. Still in the South, the government's negative assessment fell from 41% to 37%, while the regular assessment rose from 25% to 32%. The proportion of people who did not know or did not respond was 3%. In other regions, positive and negative evaluations of the Lula government remained stable.
Economy
The Genial/Quaest survey asked respondents about the Brazilian economy in the last 12 months. The results reveal that the perception of the economic situation worsened slightly, going from 38% to 36%. On the other hand, there was a small increase in those who believe in improvements, from 27% to 28%. About 32% reported that the economy remained stable compared to the previous period in May. The proportion of respondents who did not know or did not respond was 4%.
When asked about the purchasing power of Brazilians today compared to a year ago, 63% stated that it is lower, while 21% believe that it has increased and 14% believe that it remains the same. The research also highlighted that the increase in food prices has significantly impacted Brazilians. Approximately 70% of respondents noticed an increase in prices in the last month, while only 12% reported a drop.
Challenges and Perspectives
Despite the increase in approval, President Lula still faces significant challenges. The Brazilian economy, although recovering, still presents problems such as inflation and unemployment. Furthermore, the government needs to deal with political polarization and the opposition that criticizes the PT administration. However, Quaest data points to a positive trend, suggesting that the social and regional development policies implemented by Lula are having an effect.
Expectations for the next 12 months improved compared to May. Those who believe the economy will improve increased from 48% to 52%, while those who predict it will get worse decreased from 30% to 27%. Those who think the situation will remain the same went from 19% to 18%. There were 4% of respondents who did not know or did not respond.
Banco Central
The clash between the president and the president of the Central Bank was also addressed in the research. Despite Lula's frequent criticism of Roberto Campos Neto's management, the majority of those interviewed (64%) stated that they were not aware of these criticisms. Only 34% said they were informed about the subject. On the other hand, the majority (66%) agree with the criticisms made by Lula. However, 53% believe that Campos Neto tends to base his decisions on technical criteria in the management of the Central Bank. When asked about the increase in the dollar, 53% of those interviewed do not believe it is related to Lula's statements, while 34% think the opposite.
