IPCA-15 forecast in July reveals deflation of 0.07% with drop in energy and food prices
According to the preview released by the IBGE, the general drop in prices was mainly driven by the reduction in energy and food prices.
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According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), this Tuesday (25) the preview of the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), which is considered an important indication of official compensation in Brazil, presented a deflation of 0.07% in July. These results reflect a general drop in prices, mainly due to lower energy and food values.
Compared to the previous month, the continuous index maintained its deceleration path, showing an increase of just 0.04% in June. In July 2022, the IPCA-15 had registered an increase of 0.13%. Considering the data accumulated in the last 12 months, the IPCA-15 reached the mark of 3.19%. According to the IBGE, the item that had the greatest impact on deflation was the reduction in residential electricity prices (-3.45%), after the inclusion of the Itaipu Bonus, credited on July invoices.
Retreat in prices
Four of the nine groups analyzed by the IBGE had a drop in the last months, with the greatest variation occurring in the Housing group, which registered a reduction of -0.94%. This fall was driven by the reduction of electricity costs and by the reduction in the price of gas cylinders, which had a variation of -2.10%. Recently, Petrobras decided to reduce the price of cooking gas (LPG) in refineries by 3.9%, which took the price of a 13 kg cylinder to R$ 31.66 before taxes, considering the profits of distributors and traders.
Another important factor that contributed to deflation in the month was the Food and Beverage group, which fell by -0.40%. This result was positively influenced by the favorable performance of the household food subgroup, which registered a variation of -0.72%. This subgroup is strongly affected by the prices of basic foodstuffs, such as pinto beans (-10.20%), soy oil (-6.14%), long-life milk (-2.50%) and meats (-2.42%).
Variation of groups during the month of July
Food and beverages: -0.40%
Housing: -0.94%
Home items: -0.40%
Clothing: 0.04%
Transport: 0.63%
Health and personal care: 0.07%
Personal expenses: 0.38%
Education: 0.11%
Communication: -0.17%
Transport Group
In July, the main driver of rising prices was the Transport group, which recorded an increase of 0.63%. This increase was led by the significant increase in gasoline prices, which increased by 2.99%. This motor fuel had a positive impact of 0.14 percentage points on the IPCA-15. Interestingly, on the same day that the price of cooking gas was reduced, Petrobras announced a 5.3% reduction in gasoline prices for refineries. However, consumers have not felt this difference at the pumps, due to the reintroduction of taxes in the production chain.
This situation is the result of changes in the way in which ICMS is charged by the states since the beginning of June, which increased prices in some Federative Units (FUs). In addition, the federal government also increased federal taxes on gasoline and ethanol again in early July. PIS/Cofins had an increase of R$ 0.22 per liter for ethanol and R$ 0.34 per liter for gasoline.
On the other hand, the prices of diesel oil (-3.48%) and ethanol (-0.70%) presented deflation in the preview of the tolerance, which balanced the subgroup of fuels. Despite these results, the month of July registered an overall increase of 2.28% in prices. It is worth mentioning the reductions in the prices of new cars (-2.34%) and used cars (-1.05%). These drops are still a reflection of the federal government program that granted discounts on zero kilometer cars. It is estimated that, in total, 125 thousand vehicles have already been sold, part of them during the beginning of July.
