Aneel predicts an average increase of 5.6% in electricity bills in 2024; What are the impacts on the Brazilian pocket
In 2023, the average increase was 5.9%, below the initial projection of 6.8%. If confirmed, the 5.6% increase predicted for this year will exceed the average inflation, estimated at 3.87% by experts.
Power Transmission Line - Photo Reproduction/Aneel
The National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) announced this Tuesday (23) its projections for the electricity sector in 2024, indicating an average increase of 5.6% in energy tariffs. The projection exceeds the inflation rate predicted for the period, which is 3.87%, according to financial market economists consulted by the Central Bank. In 2023, the energy agency predicted an average increase of 6.8% in distributor tariffs. However, the observed increase was 5.9%.
The adjustment in electricity tariffs is a reality that directly affects the lives of Brazilians and the functioning of various sectors of the economy. Aneel justifies the increase predicted for 2024 based on three main factors. The first is energy contracted in the captive market, a term used when consumers do not have the option of choosing their energy supplier and are "forced" to purchase it from the local distributor. Right away, the expansion of the transmission network stands out as a second influential factor. Finally, the subsidy account, which has shown growth in recent years, also contributes to justifying the increase.
It is important to highlight that Aneel makes annual adjustments to the energy tariffs applied by distributors, occurring on the concession's "anniversary" date. These readjustments take into account different elements, such as the cost associated with energy generation and transmission, as well as sectoral charges. In addition, the specific operating costs of distributors are considered, along with the variation in inflation during the period under analysis.
Economic Impacts
Inflation: The increase in energy tariffs has the potential to impact inflation, as higher production costs can be passed on to consumers, influencing the price index.
Cost of living: For consumers, the adjustment in the electricity bill represents an increase in monthly expenses, directly impacting families' cost of living.
Business Competitiveness: Production sectors that depend heavily on electricity, such as industry, may feel the pressure of rising costs, compromising competitiveness in the national and international market.
Record Subsidy Amount
In 2024, it is expected that subsidies reach the highest value recorded in Aneel's historical series, totaling R$37.2 billion. These subsidies comprise the charges borne by the Energy Development Account (CDE), which consolidates the financial benefits assumed by energy consumers. The largest portion of this amount, equivalent to R$32.7 billion (88%), will be borne directly by energy consumers throughout 2024, through two charges included in electricity bills.
CDE revenues come from various sources, including fines applied by Aneel, research and development resources not used by companies, payments made by hydroelectric plants for the use of public assets, funds from the Global Reversion Reserve (RGR), charges paid by generators , transmitters and distributors, contributions from the National Treasury and quotas dispersed by consumers.
