According to the survey carried out in São Paulo on May 27th and 28th, in a scenario with the largest possible number of candidates, the deputy has a percentage of 24%, while the current mayor has 23%.

Federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) and the mayor of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes (MDB) - Photo Reproduction/Zeca Ribeiro/Chamber of Deputies

The 2024 municipal elections in São Paulo promise to be one of the most fierce in recent years. Second, in the most recent research carried out by the Datafolha institute, released this Wednesday (29), candidates Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) and Ricardo Nunes (MDB) are technically tied in the preference of São Paulo voters. Boulos appears with 24% of voting intentions, while Nunes has 23%.

Then appeared presenter Luiz Datena (PSDB) and federal deputy Tabata Amaral (PSB-SP), both with 8% voting intentions. Businessman Pablo Marçal (PRTB) occupies fifth place, with 7%, followed by pre-candidate Maria Helena (Novo) and federal deputy Kim Kataguiri (União-SP), who have 4%. João Pimenta (PCO), Ricardo Senese (UP) and Fernando Fantazzi have 1% of voting intentions.

Check out the complete survey:

• Guilherme Boulos (PSol): 24%

• Ricardo Nunes (MDB): 23%

• José Luiz Datena (PSDB): 8%

• Tabata Amaral (PSB): 8%

• Pablo Marçal (PRTB): 7%

• Marina Helena (New): 4%

• Kim Kataguiri (Union): 4%

• João Pimenta (PCO): 1%

• Ricardo Senese (UP): 1%

• Fernando Fantauzzi (DC): 1%

• Altino (PSTU): 1%

• Blank/null/none: 13%

• Don't know: 5%

Context of the Dispute

Guilherme Boulos, known for his social activism and leadership in the Homeless Workers Movement (MTST), ran for mayor of São Paulo for the second time. In 2020, he reached the second round against Bruno Covas, then mayor and candidate for re-election, but was defeated. Boulos stands out for a platform focused on housing, education and social justice, seeking to attract the vote of the younger and more progressive population.

Ricardo Nunes, current mayor of São Paulo, took office after the death of Bruno Covas in 2021. Affiliated with the MDB, Nunes has a political trajectory focused on continuing the policies initiated by Covas, focusing on urban management, public security and health. His administration has received mixed reviews, with praise for the continuity of infrastructure projects, but criticism for its management of the housing crisis.

The search

The Datafolha survey, carried out between May 27 and 28, 2024, interviewed 1,092 voters aged 16 or over in the city of São Paulo and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. With Boulos registering 24% and Nunes 23% of voting intentions, the difference between them is within the margin of error, characterizing a technical draw. Other candidates were also mentioned in the survey, but none of them surpassed the 15% mark of voting intentions.

According to the institute, if presenter José Luiz Datena, who receives 8% of voting intentions, and federal deputy Kim Kataguiri (União Brasil), with 4%, are not considered, the position of Boulos and Nunes will be reversed. The current mayor now leads the dispute with 26%, compared to Boulos' 24%. The search includes different candidates from the previous search, held in March this year. On that occasion, Datena, coach Pablo Marçal (PRTB) and other minor candidates were not considered.

In the analysis of spontaneous voting intention data, where respondents do not have access to the list of candidates, Guilherme Boulos stands out, obtaining 13% preference. The mayor of São Paulo appears in second place, with 9% support. In the Datafolha survey, voters were asked which candidates would not receive their vote under any circumstances.

Elections 2024

According to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), voters will go to the polls on October 6th to vote for mayors and councilors in all 5,570 municipalities in the country. If a second round is necessary, it will take place on the 27th of the same month. Electoral propaganda in a virtual environment can only begin on August 16, after the registration of candidacies. Before this date, any advertising or demonstration with an explicit request to vote may be considered irregular and subject to a fine. The radio and television campaigns will be shown from August 30th and end on October 3rd.